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The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared with about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of March 20, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,571, up from $3,221 roughly one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 79 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected through the April 15 deadline.
How average tax refunds could shift
After several weeks of average refund data, it’s “less likely we’re going to see a major change” before the April 15 tax deadline, William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC.
But the average could still rise as taxpayers claim the bigger deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, he said. Trump’s legislation raised the SALT limit to $40,000, up from $10,000, for 2025.
“It’s a pretty big deal for higher-income folks that live in expensive cities,” McBride said. “Those people don’t tend to file [tax returns] early.”
While many tax forms arrive by late January, higher-earning investors could wait longer for forms detailing brokerage account assets or business income, experts say.
However, you must itemize tax breaks, rather than claim the standard deduction, to benefit from the more generous SALT cap for 2025.
During tax year 2022, nearly 90% of returns used the standard deduction, based on the latest IRS data. In the same year, about 15 million returns claimed the SALT deduction, fewer than 10% of filings.
For 2025 returns, there could be more itemizers due to the SALT deduction change, experts say.
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