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It’s becoming clear that investor apathy in this year’s crypto market is starting to hurt Coinbase , according to Mizuho analysts. The crypto exchange’s trading volume historically has been influenced by moves in the price of bitcoin . But that trend has been falling apart since the beginning of the year, Mizuho managing director Dan Dolev said in a note Tuesday, calling it a “stark” and “likely unprecedented” bifurcation. Dolev highlighted that while bitcoin has risen from its fourth-quarter 2022 trough to an average of $28,500 in the third quarter to date, Coinbase’s trading volumes have tumbled – from $145 billion in the first quarter, to $92 billion in the second and on pace for $80 billion in the third. “This indicates potential fatigue among retail customers,” Dolev said. “Unlike in prior cycles, FOMO no longer entices investors to trade bitcoin when prices rise the way it did in prior years. This could prove problematic for COIN.” “With retail accounting for 95% of trading revenue, we worry that the YTD rise in COIN’s stock is unsustainable,” he added. “We expect a reality check to follow.” Mizuho maintains its underperform rating and $27 price target on Coinbase shares. Dolev also said the spike in daily volumes that followed Grayscale’s big win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Aug. 30 has faded, with September average daily trading volumes tracking below August levels by some 25%. Bitcoin trading volume across spot crypto exchanges is about in line with levels from Aug. 30, according to CryptoQuant. The price of bitcoin has remained stagnant in recent weeks despite having several positive developments in the same period on the regulatory and ETF fronts. Those rallies have failed to hold, however, as the market suffers from low liquidity and volume. Others on Wall Street have said the next cycle in crypto will be led by institutions rather than retail investors, and could be slower to take off as the industry and policy makers lay the appropriate groundwork for them. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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