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Brent oil prices could surge past their record high if crude flows remain depressed for a long period due to the U.S. war with Iran, Goldman Sachs analysts warned this week. “Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, told clients in a Thursday note. Brent set an intraday record of $147.50 per barrel during the 2008 financial crisis. Prices could surge by $42 per barrel through the end of 2027, the analyst said. Brent would likely surge to this level if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain very low for 60 days and if Middle East production falls by 2 million barrels per day for a long period after the Strait reopens, they said. Brent was trading around $108 per barrel on Friday. Prices have surged about 49% during the war. Goldman still sees Brent prices moderating to the $70s by the end of 2026 on the expectation that oil flows will gradually recover in April. But the attacks this week by Israel and Iran against energy infrastructure highlights that the market faces a supply risk beyond disruption to traffic in the Strait. Goldman warned that prior supply shocks underscore “the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses.” Oil production dropped by an average of 42% after four years during the past five biggest supply shocks, the analysts said. This was due to damaged infrastructure and low investment, they said.
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