Can Model Y refresh reignite Tesla’s growth?

Tesla is about to release a design refresh for Model Y, its most popular model, and it raises an important question: can it reignite Tesla’s growth?

Fortunately, we have a good recent comparison since Tesla refreshed the Model 3 last year.

Tesla doesn’t break down sales per model so we have to rely on third-party data to track Model 3 sales.

There are varying estimates, but most of them are putting Tesla Model 3 sales between 500,000 and 530,000 units in 2023 prior to the refresh.

In 2024, estimates are putting sales at roughly the same.

Tesla delivery analyst TroyTeslike has data pointing to 520,000 Model 3 deliveries in 2024. The production changeover has certainly affected sales in the first of the year, but it looks like production and deliveries peaked in Q3 as Troy has Model 3 at the same volume of about 149,000 units in Q3 and Q4.

As with all other Tesla models, the peaked delivery volumes were also achieved with record incentives and discounts in Q4.

Can Model Y refresh be different?

Model 3 refresh didn’t help the program that much. It is virtually doing the same delivery volumes it was last year, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen with Model Y.

A lot of that depends on the refresh itself.

Earlier today, we had our best look at the refresh so far, and it is similar to the Model 3 refresh in the sense that it features new headlights and taillights, although different ones than Model 3, including light bars, as well as a more aggressive front-end.

The level of exterior changes is similar to the Model 3 refresh in terms that it is significant but not massively different either.

Tesla didn’t go into too many details about “under the hood” changes with the Model 3 refresh, but it did feature an improved suspension, a quieter cabin, and a slight increase in efficiency.

We can expect similar improvements to the Model Y.

There were some changes that people saw as negative, with the main one being the new steering wheel. Model Y is still the only vehicle in Tesla’s lineup that doesn’t have a stalkless steering wheel with force touch turn signals and a gear selector on the center display.

Considering all other Tesla vehicles went that way, this is expected to change with the Model Y refresh. Personally, I didn’t have any problem adapting to the new turn signals when driving the new Model 3 and Cybertruck, but I do admit that the gear selector is annoying.

I know many Tesla fans refused to get a Tesla vehicle with steering wheel stalks.

Electrek’s Take

Based on the information we have right now, I would expect the Model Y refresh to have a similar impact as the Model 3 refresh, but we could get a surprise.

Obviously, if there were significant improvements to the range, that would make a big difference, but I would only expect small incremental improvements at best.

A bigger surprise would be Tesla bringing something like the steer-by-wire and a 48-volt architecture from Cybertruck to Model Y. You have to try it to appreciate it, but the steer-by-wire on Cybertruck is super fun.

The design update looks good, but I thought the Model 3 redesign was even sharper, and it didn’t have much of an impact. I think new features or more efficiency/range would be the most significant difference makers.

What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.