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Oil is surging as geopolitical tensions escalate, but the assumption that the US will remain shielded from the fallout is now being tested, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
Brent crude has climbed above $113 a barrel as threats to energy infrastructure and key shipping routes intensify.
Global equity markets have fallen sharply in response, with Europe and Asia leading declines. US benchmark WTI has risen more modestly, reinforcing the view that America is less exposed to immediate supply disruption.
Yet the growing divergence between global and US oil prices may be masking a deeper vulnerability.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, warns: “While the US appears more protected at first glance, it’s far from immune if the crisis escalates further.
“The gap between Brent and WTI suggests the US is less directly exposed to supply shocks, and that’s true to a point,” he says. “But investors should not mistake relative insulation for immunity.”
The US remains the world’s largest oil producer, with much of its supply produced and stored domestically. This reduces reliance on seaborne imports and limits exposure to choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the chief executive of deVere stresses that the US economy is deeply tied to global demand and capital flows. These factors could quickly override any domestic energy advantage.
“A significant portion of US assets are owned by overseas investors, and the economy depends heavily on global trade. If the shock spreads and global growth weakens, the US will feel it.”
The current market reaction reflects a fragmented shock, with energy-importing regions facing the most immediate pressure. Higher oil and gas prices are already weighing on European and Asian markets, raising inflation risks and threatening growth.
But the second phase of the crisis, Nigel Green suggests, could be more broadly felt.
“If this turns into a deeper global slowdown, the idea that the US can remain untouched is far less convincing,” he explains.
“Demand weakens, capital moves, and financial conditions tighten across borders.”
Rising US yields are another emerging concern. As borrowing costs increase, they add pressure to an economy already navigating elevated inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.
“Higher yields reflect tightening financial conditions at a time when risks are building. This combination can become a problem quickly if confidence starts to shift.”
Currency markets, often a source of strength during periods of stress, may also become more complex.
“While the dollar typically benefits from safe-haven flows, sustained global disruption could alter capital allocation patterns, particularly if overseas investors reassess exposure to US assets.”
At the same time, geopolitical dynamics remain highly unpredictable. US President Donald Trump has warned of further escalation, including potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure, while Iran has signalled it will respond by targeting critical facilities across the region.
This creates a strategic standoff with significant market implications.
“The US administration needs a resolution to stabilise markets, but Iran understands the pressure,” he says.
“This dynamic increases the risk of prolonged tension rather than a quick de-escalation.”
The focus for investors is no longer solely on where the initial impact is strongest, but on how far the shock can spread.
Nigel Green concludes: “Early resilience in the US should not lead to complacency.”
“This is a global system, and if the stress intensifies, the effects will be shared more widely.
“The question is not whether the US starts from a stronger position, it does, but how long that advantage can, realistically, last.”
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