Economists have ‘really had it wrong’ about recession, market strategist says

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another quarter point at the conclusion of its two-day meeting next week.

“Two years ago … three out of four economists were saying we’re going into a recession,” David Zervos, chief market strategist for Jefferies LLC, said during CNBC’s Financial Advisor Summit on Tuesday. “They’ve really had it wrong.”

The economy is still growing and inflation has come down, he said.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation stood at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% when excluding food and energy prices, according to the latest reading. Meanwhile, the fourth quarter is on track to post a 3.3% annualized growth rate for gross domestic product, the Atlanta Fed found.

“I think the market is spending way too much time focused on the inflationary consequences of either immigration or trade policies,” Zervos said.

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell praised the U.S. economy and said it provided cushion for policymakers to move slowly as they recalibrate policy.

By most indicators, 2025 is going to continue in a positive direction, said Barbara Doran, CEO of BD8 Capital Partners during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

“Economic growth is going to be healthy next year,” Doran said. “The prognosis is good.”

Meanwhile, there is still the issue of President-elect Donald Trump’s fiscal policy when he begins his second term.

On one hand, “we’ve got a lot of deregulation coming,” Zervos said, which he called a “huge disinflationary tailwind.”  

“Take the tape, rewind it, put it back to 2019 and let’s go from there,” Zervos said.

In part because of such policies, during the last Trump administration “we saw very little inflation,” he said. “We never really bounced out of that 2% range … so I am really optimistic on the inflation side.”

However, questions remain on Trump’s plans to issue punitive tariffs and whether that could stoke inflation once again. Last month, Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, said in a note that the proposed tariffs would boost consumer prices by nearly 1%.

“It’s still a big wildcard that we have to see,” Doran said. “It would be inflationary ultimately, but it would hurt the lowest income consumer who is already hurting.”

If inflation does creep up as a result, that may delay more rate cuts after December’s meeting she added. Other experts also expect the Fed to slow down its pace of rate cuts in 2025.