Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase

A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase.

The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.

But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.

“If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.

The credit rating firms relied upon by bond investors have roiled markets lately with their actions. Last week, Moody’s downgraded 10 small and midsized banks and warned that cuts could come for another 17 lenders, including larger institutions like Truist and U.S. Bank. Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating because of political dysfunction and growing debt loads, a move that was derided by business leaders including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

This time, Fitch is intent on signaling to the market that bank downgrades, while not a foregone conclusion, are a real risk, said Wolfe.

The firm’s June action took the industry’s “operating environment” score to AA- from AA because of pressure on the country’s credit rating, regulatory gaps exposed by the March regional bank failures and uncertainty around interest rates.

The problem created by another downgrade to A+ is that the industry’s score would then be lower than some of its top-rated lenders. The country’s two largest banks by assets, JPMorgan and Bank of America, would likely be cut to A+ from AA- in this scenario, since banks can’t be rated higher than the environment in which they operate.

And if top institutions like JPMorgan are cut, then Fitch would be forced to at least consider downgrades on all their peers’ ratings, according to Wolfe. That could potentially push some weaker lenders closer to non-investment grade status.

For instance, Miami Lakes, Florida-based BankUnited, at BBB, is already at the lower bounds of what investors consider investment grade. If the firm, which has a negative outlook, falls another notch, it would be perilously close to a non-investment grade rating.

In terms of what could push Fitch to downgrade the industry, the biggest factor is the path of interest rates determined by the Federal Reserve. Some market forecasters have said the Fed may already be done raising rates and could cut them next year, but that isn’t a foregone conclusion. Higher rates for longer than expected would pressure the industry’s profit margins.