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The recent pullback in crude has made call options on U.S. oil an attractive hedge against continued geopolitical and inflation risks that could push prices higher, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s commodity strategists expect West Texas Intermediate prices to rise to $88 per barrel in six months, 16% higher than current forward pricing, amid strong demand. The investment bank recommends buying a $71 United States Oil ETF call for April 2024 to profit from a jump in prices. Investors would see an estimated return of 90% if WTI hits $88 a barrel by April, according to Goldman. The investment bank acknowledged that April is only five months away, but the downside is limited to the initial option premium if the ETF shares close below the strike price at expiration. The implied volatility in oil prices rose significantly in October due to the Israel-Hamas war, but option prices have since fallen and are now below the 1-year average. USO options are pricing in a move of 4.5%, up or down, ahead of the next OPEC meeting on Nov. 26 , which is lower than the 5.6% average in the eight business days prior to such meetings over the past nine years, excluding 2020. Goldman, on the other hand, sees a large upside to USO straddle prices vs. history. USO 3M mountain U.S. Oil Fund ETF past three months. “We believe options prices across oil and energy have been driven down by the broad decline in implied volatility recently and recommend investors to position with options ahead of the OPEC meeting,” analyst Arun Prakash wrote in a note Thursday. For equity investors, call options on S & P Oil & Gas , Energy Select Sector SPDR , Occidental and ConocoPhillips are the most attractive ahead of the OPEC meeting, according to Goldman.
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