Here’s what TSLA analysts are saying about Tesla’s big delivery miss

Most Wall Street analysts covering Tesla’s stock (TSLA) badly misread the automaker’s delivery volumes this quarter. Some of them have started releasing notes to clients following Tesla’s production and delivery results.

Here’s what they have to say:

According to Tesla-compiled analyst consensus, the automaker was expected to report “377,592 deliveries” in the first quarter.

Tesla confirmed yesterday that it delivered only 336,000 electric vehicles during the first three months of 2025.

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• Cantor Fitzgerald was the first analyst firm to issue a note after the release. They reaffirmed their overweight rating with a $425 price target. As we previously reported, Cantor has some major conflicts of interest with Tesla and CEO Elon Musk.
• Truist Securities maintained its hold rating on Tesla’s stock, but it greatly lowered its price target from $373 to $280 a share. They insist that while their earnings expectations have crashed because they overestimated deliveries, investors should focus on Tesla’s self-driving effort, which they see as “much more important for the long-term value of the stock.”
• Goldman Sachs lowered its price target from $320 to $275 a share. The firm expected 375,000 deliveries from Tesla in Q1 and therefore had to adjust its earnings expectations with almost 40,000 fewer deliveries.
• Wedbush‘s Dan Ives, one of Tesla’s biggest cheerleaders, called the delivery results “disastrous”, but he reiterated his $550 price target on Tesla’s stock.
• UBS has reiterated its $225 price target which it had lowered last month after adjusting its delivery expectations in Q1 to 367,000 – one of the more accurate predictions on Wall Street.
• CFRA‘s analyst Garrett Nelson reduced his price target from $385 to $360 a share.

Electrek’s Take

I find it funny that most of them are maintaining or barely changing their expectations after they were so wrong about Tesla in Q1.

If you were so wrong in Q1, you should expect to be incorrect also for the rest of the year, and readjust accordingly.

But Cantor is invested in Tesla, and the firm is owned by Elon’s friend, who happens to now be the secretary of commerce. Truist still believes Elon’s self-driving lies, Goldman Sachs overestimated Tesla’s deliveries by the equivalent of $2 billion in revenues, and Dan Ives is Dan Ives.

Covering Tesla over the last 15 years has confirmed to me that most Wall Street analysts have no idea what they are doing – or at least not when it comes to companies like Tesla.

Do you know any who have been consistently good lately? I’d love suggestions in the comment section below.