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The number of residential property transactions reached 94,800 in September, up 2% on the corresponding month a year earlier but 9% lower than August, the latest HMRC statistics reveal.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, transactions were 9% higher than September 2023 and marginally higher (less than 1%) than in August.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, commented: “As we move towards the end of the year, it remains upbeat to witness a real transformation within the housing sector with an overall trend of growth.
“There are also potential positives hopefully still to come, with strong hints we may see a further dip regarding the base rates next week. However, there are some aspects contained within yesterday’s budget which are extremely disappointing, with first time buyers feeling the brunt, as the current stamp duty threshold is lowered back to £300,000 from next April being an example. Typically, this would mean an additional tax liability of £6,250 for those hoping to get on the housing ladder on a home priced at £425,000.
Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, said: “In September, sub-4% mortgage products as well as lower interest rates motivated house hunters to start or finalise their property search. This uplift in buyer interest enticed sellers to put their property up for sale sooner rather than later which provided buyers with a larger pool of properties to choose from.
“We currently have 17% more properties under offer than in 2020 and still register new house hunters entering the market. We expect this level of buyer activity to continue over the coming weeks, especially if the Bank of England announces another rate cut next week.”
Nicky Stevenson, MD at Fine & Country, noted: “The property market gained momentum in September, with transaction numbers rising in line with predictions for an autumn boost.
“After a slight dip in August, buyer activity rebounded, and transactions were 9% higher than this time last year.
“Yesterday’s budget announcement from the Labour government, outlining a £40 billion tax increase plan, could influence the market as we head toward the end of 2024. While some are re-evaluating their financial outlook, this year’s economic indicators have shown resilience, fueling cautious optimism for the property market.
“First-time buyers remain largely unaffected by these new tax measures, which primarily impact wealthier, older homeowners. This has eased pressure on younger buyers, who are already navigating high home prices and interest rates. That said, some feel further support for first-time buyers would have been welcomed.
“Earlier in the year, a reduction in the base interest rate provided a break for monthly mortgage costs, encouraging more buyers to re-enter the market. Experts expect another rate cut from the Bank of England before year-end, potentially giving buyers more flexibility with their budgets.
“With continued buyer interest, experts are hopeful that the property market is set up for a strong end to the year.”
Andrew Lloyd, MD at Search Acumen, remarked: “We are encouraged to see the uptick in commercial and residential transaction figures continue this month, sustaining the confidence we have in both markets’ recoveries from a tumultuous period. Despite significant tax rises, yesterday’s budget has at least ended weeks of speculation, providing further stability, with policy affecting the next few years in Government, being set and disclosed.
“Rachel Reeves’ plans to get Britain building again will be a key driver for sections of the housing market, with a promise of a significant £5bn investment setting the tone for the months ahead, while the promise of further business rates relief will be welcomed by affected commercial property occupiers. Combined with steady interest rate reductions, we are starting to see a more positive outlook for the industry.
“With surer footing and an injection of cash on the way, we want to make sure that the industry is primed and ready for the challenge that lies ahead. Hitting the Government’s steep housing targets will be no mean feat. All different facets of the industry will need to work together to remove roadblocks and ensure that hold ups sales and purchases of land or buildings are not hampered by slow processes and inefficient systems. A crucial part of this journey will be ensuring the use of technology is front and centre. Without it, we won’t find the industry progress nearly as quickly as we’d like.”
Anthony Coding, RBC Capital Markets, added: “If we needed further proof that the UK housing market in on an upward trajectory, we got it today. Housing transactions in September 2024 were 9% higher than one year ago, and 1% higher than in August. If yesterday’s budget brings stability rather than volatility, we expect that housing transactions will continue to rise, as the pro-housing pro-growth Labour Party seeks to increase the supply of housing.”
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