Hormuz Strait oil traffic way down after ceasefire; Hassett says even one tanker is big deal

President Donald Trump’s top economic advisor Kevin Hassett said Thursday that getting even one oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz would provide a “huge chunk of what’s missing” amid a global supply crunch caused by the U.S.-Israel war in Iran.

Hassett, director of White House’s National Economic Council, made the claim as traffic through the key shipping route remains tightly throttled, despite the U.S. and Iran reaching a fragile ceasefire that ostensibly involves reopening the strait.

More than 100 commercial vessels, mostly oil tankers, were passing through the strait each day before the war started on Feb. 28, according to data from Kpler.

Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst said just two tankers — one of which was Iranian — and a handful of bulk carriers have transited the waterway since the two-week ceasefire was announced Tuesday evening.

That’s within the meager range of traffic that has been seen throughout the war, providing Iran with a key source of leverage even as it’s weathered punishing military strikes from the U.S. and Israel.

The blockage of the strait, which normally ferries 20% of the world’s oil, sent global energy prices soaring. Oil prices fell sharply following news of the ceasefire, but jumped back above $100 per barrel on Thursday.

“We have an agreement [with] the Iranians that they’re going to open the Strait of Hormuz, and that we’ll have a ceasefire,” Hassett said in a Fox Business interview Thursday morning.

“They have said that they’re going to start letting many more ships through,” Hassett said of Iran.

“We’ll watch as the day progresses, whether that’s true or not, being mindful of the fact that if you get one of those big tankers through, that’s 2 million barrels. So that’s a huge chunk of what’s missing,” he said.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait per day. And since the war began Feb. 28, hundreds of millions of barrels have been taken off the market due to an inability to be shipped out of the Persian Gulf, said Amena Bakr, an expert on the Middle East and OPEC at Kpler.

Hassett added, “In the end, I think we’re not going to have complete clarity until we finish the negotiations” set to begin this weekend in Islamabad, Pakistan.

“We fully expect that we’ve got so much on the table that we’re willing to give to help the Iranian people, if they just act normally, that hopefully there will be cooler heads and sounder minds at the Iranian side, and that will come to a final agreement this weekend,” he said.

Hassett’s comments came one day after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said “what has been agreed to, what’s been stated is, the strait is open.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said later Wednesday that the U.S. has “seen an uptick of traffic in the strait today.”

“I will reiterate the president’s expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely” amid the ceasefire, Leavitt said. She denied reporting from Iranian state news that oil tanker traffic had been halted following Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Trump announced the two-week ceasefire Tuesday evening, shortly before his deadline for Iran to either make a deal or else face the devastation of its “whole civilization.”

The temporary ceasefire is “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

But experts and maritime industry leaders say the strait traffic has not picked up since the ceasefire took effect.

“Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said Thursday morning on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Ships passing through the strait must obtain permission from Iran, which is reportedly planning to impose new tolls on the transiting vessels, Al Jaber said.

“That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” he said.

Iran on Wednesday accused the U.S. of breaching the ceasefire by violating parts of Tehran’s 10-point proposal for a temporary pause in hostilities.