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Nvidia’s most recent leg up is starting to worry market watchers. The artificial intelligence beneficiary only reported results last Wednesday, but in the three trading days since its beat, the stock has surged roughly 20%. Year to date, shares have more than doubled, advancing roughly 120%. Nvidia is now a $2.8 billion company, an eyewatering figure that places the graphics processing unit maker just behind Apple ($2.9 billion) and Microsoft ($3.2 billion) in the S & P 500. One market observer noted that makes Nvidia bigger than Amazon, Walmart and Netflix combined. At the same time, however, more investors wonder if Nvidia is overvalued and they should start taking profits, especially as the broader market comes under pressure from higher Treasury yields. Not only has Nvidia surged above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it now boasts a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 66. NVDA 5D mountain Nvidia “As incredible as this business is … do we really think it should be the largest corporation on earth? Because that’s where it’s headed so long as it continues its meteoric rise,” Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown wrote in a newsletter Wednesday. “Should Nvidia be larger than Apple and/or Microsoft?” In fact, the investor noted any sign of threat to earnings growth expectations for 2024 could be “correction fuel” for Nvidia and large growth stocks tied to the AI trade. Elsewhere, other market observers agreed now may be the time to trim some gains in Nvidia. BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky cautioned investors that a pullback to the prior breakout point between 975 to 1,000 would “not be surprising,” even if the upward trend remains intact for the stock. That would be a 12% to 14% drawdown from Tuesday’s close for the stock. “While fading Nvidia (NVDA, Not Rated) is usually not wise, it’s notable that today’s gap up is entirely above its upper Bollinger Band,” Krinsky wrote on Tuesday. “That sort of action is typically tough to sustain, and emblematic of emotional buying which can lead to a bit of a blowoff top.” The Bollinger Band, a technical tool using three “bands” on a chart to gauge the volatility of an asset, helps investors determine whether a stock is overvalued. The middle line represents the 20-day simple moving average, while the upper and lower bands show the number of standard deviations. A move toward the upper band could mean the stock is overbought. Meanwhile, Wolfe Research’s Rob Ginsberg on Tuesday wrote that Nvidia has come “awfully close” to a measured move on a breakout of $1,150, without quite reaching the level. “[Its] dominance within the indices today and Thursday has been historic,” Ginsberg wrote. “Add to the mix the deeply overbought condition and the general euphoria, and we think this is a pretty good spot to harvest some gains.”
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