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Ahead of Friday’s January GDP data and with “awful April” nearly upon us, Newspage asked a selection of business owners and economists for their views on the current health of the economy — and whether things could deteriorate further from next month.
One said: “While Friday’s GDP data will provide a snapshot of the UK at the start of 2025, the real reckoning is expected in April when Labour’s fiscal policy kicks in. This could push the UK into an even deeper economic malaise.”
Another added: “At best, Friday’s MOT on the UK economy will show lots of advisory notes; at worst, the car will be ready for salvage by the end of the second quarter once the tax rises hit home.” Views below.
Tony Redondo, founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange said, “At best, Friday’s MOT on the UK economy will show lots of advisory notes; at worst, the car will be ready for salvage by the end of the second quarter once the tax rises hit home.
“The UK economy’s limping along, with a knackered gearbox that is stuck between neutral and first gear. Early 2025 feels grim with growth forecasts cut to 0.9%. I expect January GDP, out this Friday, to show 0.1% growth at best, reflecting my clients’ slow first quarter with services in first gear and retail, construction, and manufacturing all stuck between neutral and reverse.
“Labour’s “Awful April” NIC, stamp duty, and other tax hikes plus utility cost increases will keep inflation sticky and leave the Bank of England hoping they will not have to raise interest rates again. That would kill the economy stone-dead. The pain is not fully priced in and we still have the Spring spending review to be announced on 26 March and export woes if US tariffs bite.”
Sam Kirk, managing director at J-Flex Rubber Products said, “Labour’s economic strategy is about as effective as expecting Neville Longbottom to defeat Voldemort in the first Harry Potter book.
“Who knew that hiking taxes, drowning businesses in regulation and throwing public money around like confetti wouldn’t stimulate economic growth?
“Maybe they think the economy runs on magic? Unfortunately for Severus Starmer and co there’s no ‘Expelliarmus Recession’ spell, so I suppose we’re stuck watching them wave their wands and hoping for the best.”
Richard O’Connor, director at First Mats said, “Labour has yet to convince me they’ve got a credible plan for the economy.
“While they’re pushing more people into work by cutting costs and reforming welfare, they’ve simultaneously made employing people more expensive for businesses like mine.
“This will inevitably lead to fewer job opportunities, the opposite outcome of what they’re aiming for. What we genuinely need is an environment that encourages businesses to grow, invest and create sustainable employment.
“Without this shift in approach, my expectation is that the economy will, at best, stagnate for years. Labour urgently needs to rethink its strategy or risk deepening the economic pain beyond April.”
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