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Jefferies says the rest of Wall Street is wrong about these stocks it likes

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
May 1, 2025
in Investing
Jefferies says the rest of Wall Street is wrong about these stocks it likes
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Amid a volatile market, Jefferies is taking a contrarian position on some stocks. The S & P 500 ended April down 0.8% after several dramatic swings that followed President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs rollout on April 2. Companies have been scrambling to deal with the impact on their supply chains, and investors are looking to assess the fallout. Jefferies highlighted some of the stocks where its view is outside the mainstream compared with the rest of Wall Street. Here are some of the names on the list: Three of the stocks on the firm’s list are consumer names: e.l.f. Beauty , Monster Beverage and Grocery Outlet Holding . E.l.f. Beauty shares have plunged more than 50% this year as sales have slowed due to softening demand. The company also has heavy supply chain exposure to China, making it highly vulnerable to the ongoing trade war with the country. However, Jefferies is optimistic on the beauty stock’s setup. The firm expects tariffs on the country to de-escalate to a 60% rate in the long term. Elf can offset this through a 10% increase in their average costs — which would still price it below average of its competitors, according to analyst Ashley Helgans. “As such, we believe ELF will maintain its value proposition with high-quality products at affordable prices. ELF trades at ~12x EBITDA and close to its historical trough multiple (~9x EBITDA) and we think investors are overestimating tariff impact on the business,” she wrote in a Tuesday note. Helgans holds a $75 price target on shares, implying around 25% upside potential. Monster Beverage is another stock Jefferies thinks has a favorable outlook. Year to date, the stock has popped 12.7%. Although the stock is trading at around a 57% premium to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, analyst Kaumil Gajrawala believes the stock has accelerating top-line trends — “a rarity in this macro environment, and deserving of a premium multiple.” “Monster is among the few companies in our space with sequentially improving trends. Innovations are working, and they should benefit from a weaker dollar,” Gajrawala said. The analyst’s price target of $71 per share suggests shares gaining around 15% from Wednesday’s close. Unfavorable outlooks On the flip side, Jefferies also named some stocks where it’s taking an unfavorable position. One example is Voya Financial . According to analyst Suneet Kamath, Voya will likely miss consensus earnings expectations when it reports first-quarter results on Tuesday. Kamath forecasts weakness in its wealth solutions and health solutions segments. In addition to several near- and medium-term headwinds, the analyst believes the company is not well-prepared for longer-term demographic shifts. “We do not feel VOYA is well positioned for our Demographic Asset Shift (DAS) thesis given its sizable institutional 401(k) business where we expect assets will move out of 401(k) plans and into other products such as retail annuities, driven by an aging population, higher interest rates and the need for income-for-life solutions,” wrote Kamath. Shares have fallen 12% over the past month, dragging shares 13% lower in 2025. Wind energy company Eversource Energy is another stock where Jefferies has a contrarian position. The broader sector faces challenges under the Trump administration, analyst Paul Zimbardo noted. “Between higher ‘core’ costs/delay risks, tariff exposure, and legal uncertainties, we believe there is an adverse setup for offshore wind projects,” he said. While shares are trading nearly 4% higher for the year, Zimbardo believes a major negative catalyst could come on June 23, when a legal update is expected to come on offshore wind projects.

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