Super Micro Computer issued a lofty fiscal 2026 outlook, lifting the the stock by more than 13%. JPMorgan remains skeptical, however. The company said it expects revenue to reach $40 billion in fiscal 2026, overshadowing a much more tepid near-term forecast. Super Micro issued fiscal 2025 revenue guidance ranging between $23.5 billion and $25 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG forecast $24.92 billion. Analyst Samik Chatterjee also noted that the company’s fiscal second-quarter figures were pressured by supply chain troubles. But Chatterjee is still not convinced, reiterating his underweight rating on the stock. His new price target, while raised to $35 from $23, implies downside of 9.3% from Tuesday’s close. For a comeback to take hold, the company has to bring “execution proof points before credit for [its] aggressive FY26 revenue / margin expectations.” “While the updated outlook for F4Q25 and FY26 is well above JPM and consensus, and presents a nice upside surprise … we believe it is likely too early to underwrite such a positive outlook given: 1) limited visibility around the easing of supply chain constraints for next-generation GPUs; and 2) upcoming AI Server product cycle represents a much higher competitive backdrop compared to previous generation of Hopper-based products with many of its peers now boasting stronger portfolios and looking to more meaningfully participate in the industry,” he said in a Tuesday note. The analyst also cited low visibility due to its challenges with the Securities and Exchange Commission for his skepticism. To be sure, Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said he is “confident” the company will file its delayed annual report by the Feb. 25 deadline. SMCI 1D mountain SMCI shares on Wednesday Other analysts on Wall Street were more constructive on Super Micro Computer. Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah, who has a buy rating on the company, raised his price target to $50 from $40 — the second time in three weeks, he noted. SMCI remains an important company in an important space,” Baruah said in a note Wednesday. “Additionally, SMCI’s two largest customers have huge plans for 2025, and we believe it is inevitable that SMCI benefits.” Wedbush analyst Matt Byrson increased his target price on shares to $40 from $24 on the back of the company’s forward guidance. He said that if the company submits its yearly regulatory filing on time, uncertainty around the stock should ease. “We see reasons to believe SMCI’s business should expand significantly in 1H’26,” Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “At the same time, we are hesitant to model as aggressively as management’s forecast (with our revised outlook still anticipating healthy 44% Y/Y growth) and we also believe SMCI’s second flirtation with questionable financials will necessarily continue to weigh somewhat on the company’s perceived risk profile (and the multiple investors are willing to pay),” Bryson added. He has a neutral rating on shares.
