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Wall Street views Wednesday earnings reports from TJX Companies and Target as the latest sign of the former’s growing dominance within retail. TJX — the parent of TJ Maxx, Home Goods and Marshalls — beat expectations on both lines. Target, on the other hand, posted underwhelming quarterly revenue and a downbeat profit outlook. Compared to Target, “TJX is just eating your lunch,” William Blair analyst Dylan Carden told CNBC Pro. “That’s just simply because they do a better job in the fundamentals.” In addition to the earnings beat, TJX surpassed Wall Street’s same-store sales forecast, a key retail metric. During the third quarter, sales at stores open at least 12 months grew 5%, which Carden described as “heroic” within the broader retail sector. The Massachusetts-based company also hiked its full-year guidance for earnings per share and same-store sales, with CEO Ernie Herrman saying the holiday shopping season kicked off with a “strong start.” In a note to clients, Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson called TJX’s consistency “rare” and said the stock’s multiple should be able to continue expanding. A muted reaction UBS’ Jay Sole said the report “clears the market’s high bar,” adding that the name is a “growth stock” with upside potential. Both Sole and Carden expect TJX to continue taking market share from department stores. Carden added that TJX can expand into new product categories like beauty to fuel further growth. Carden attributed TJX’s muted stock reaction on Wednesday to Wall Street’s “whisper numbers” — or the unofficial expectations shared with clients. Shares were up less than 1% in midday trading. TJX stock has gained nearly 21% year to date, outpacing the broader market. Fellow off-price retailer Ross Stores could be in the same boat when it releases earnings on Thursday, Carden said. Ross stock has climbed 6% year to date. The William Blair analyst said that TJX’s strategy of bringing in limited supplies of sought-after inventory creates a “call to action” for shoppers to make purchases, bucking the trend of consumer uncertainty recently reported by retailers like Target and Home Depot . “It’s an objectively good print,” Carden said of TJX. “The landscape is precarious, but these guys kind of keep showing that they can navigate that.” Meanwhile, Target’s focus on employing artificial intelligence while it sees negative quarterly sales can leave investors thinking the retailer is having an “identity crisis,” he said. Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke said Target is focused on returning to growth, but he declined to say when sales would be positive again. Revenue has been stagnant for the past four years. Target shares were down more than 2% on Wednesday, bringing the discount retailer’s month-to-date losses to around 7%. Year to date, it’s shed more than 36%, putting the Minnesota-based company on pace to notch its fourth consecutive negative year. Meanwhile, TJX could see its 17th straight positive year, and has room to run. The average analyst polled by LSEG has a buy rating and an average price target implying more than 5% in upside. TJX TGT YTD mountain TJX and Target in 2025 ‘Resilience and consistency’ Dana Telsey said Wednesday’s TJX stock move also may reflect the “conservatism” in TJX’s guidance for the current quarter. While the company put up a better-than-expected forecast for the full year, its current-quarter expectations came up short of what Wall Street penciled in for the period. But the Tesley Advisor Group CEO noted that TJX shares have outperformed the broader retail sector in Wednesday morning trading, with the State Street SPDR S & P Retail ETF (XRT) down around 0.5% in early afternoon trading. TJX should continue winning profitable market share, she said. “They’re continuing to demonstrate resilience and consistency,” Telsey told CNBC Pro. “The repeated earnings beats highlight the strength of their value focus, even in an increasingly sensitive environment.” — CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge and Melissa Repko contributed to this report.
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