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As tax filing season gets underway and consumers prepare to receive larger tax refunds, JPMorgan says Costco stands to benefit the most among the nation’s retailers. President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” approved by Congress last July, has a number of tax law changes, including those governing tips and overtime pay . But after the bill was signed into law, the IRS in 2025 left tax withholding tables unchanged , meaning many taxpayers are likely to start seeing the benefits of the law in 2025 tax year refunds . Costco will outperform among consumers receiving a bigger windfall this tax season, thanks to both its geographic footprint and member demographics, especially compared to warehouse club competitors BJ’s Wholesale and Walmart’s Sam’s Club division, JPMorgan analysts led by Christopher Horvers said in a Friday note. COST YTD mountain Costco’s up about 15% in 2026. “Numerator data indicates that BJ and Sam’s have more low-end exposure, while COST has more mid- to high-end exposure, allowing it to screen the best in the club sector to expected spring tax stimulus, especially in light of COST’s big-ticket gen merch assortment,” Horvers wrote. Numerator is a data collection and market research platform that studies shopper behavior. More broadly, beyond the wholesale clubs, JPMorgan estimates that last year’s tax changes could lead to a more than 1% increase in core retail sales in 2026, with much of the impact disproportionately felt during the tax refund season. Shares of Costco are up about 15% to start 2026, after sliding 6% in 2025 following a huge rally in 2023-2024. Headquartered just outside Seattle, Costco soared 39% in 2024 and 45% in 2023.
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