With 10-year Treasury yields at their highest since shortly before the financial crisis, it’s a good time to add duration to your fixed income portfolio, according to Charles Schwab fixed income strategist Cooper Howard. The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.35% on Monday, its highest level since 2007, and was last at 4.32%. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Some on Wall Street believe yields can still climb higher . While Howard won’t rule that out, he believes they are relatively close to a peak. “If I were a betting man, I think the odds favor moving lower rather than higher,” Howard said. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury The latest bump in yields arose over concerns about an increase in Treasury issuance, as well as higher global yields and the view that the Federal Reserve may have to hold interest rates higher for longer, he said. Investors are waiting for clues from the Fed as to their next move and will listen closely as officials meet later this week at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chair Jerome Powell and others are scheduled to make remarks. If the Fed, which hiked interest rates by a quarter percentage point in July, starts to dial back its policy stance, investors can lock in higher yields with longer-dated Treasurys. With shorter-dated issues, there’s the reinvestment risk of lower yields once the Treasury matures. Even if there is more upside in yields ahead, Howard still thinks the risk/reward looks attractive on longer-term bonds right now. US10Y YTD mountain US 10-year Treasury Where to add duration depends on your risk tolerance, according to Howard. Duration measures the sensitivity of a bond’s price to changes in interest rates. Those with a low risk tolerance should look at Treasurys, while those with a little more risk appetite can consider investment-grade corporate bonds, he said. High-income investors, especially those in the 32% marginal federal income tax bracket, can consider municipal bonds . Income from the bonds are free of federal taxes and may be exempt from state taxes as well. Then identify where on the yield curve you want to be, Howard suggested. “It does make sense to be a little bit longer than your benchmark duration,” he said. For municipal bonds, that is 6.3 years, per the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. The modified duration in the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Bond Index is 7.1 years and in the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index it is 6.2 years. Buy the 10-year Treasury above 4% Meanwhile, Wells Fargo also believes longer-term rates are not far from a ceiling and is telling fixed-income investors to go out longer on the curve. It will be difficult for the 10-year to cross above 4.5% in the near term, global fixed income strategist Luis Alvarado said in a note Monday. He’s still expecting an economic slowdown to occur between year-end and the first half of 2024, when yields across the curve will move lower. “This is why we still maintain a favorable view toward extending duration and view the 10-year Treasury yields above 4% as an opportunity to add duration exposure,” Alvarado wrote. “We believe fixed income portfolios should benefit as yields decline (prices go up) in anticipation of an economic recession and eventual rate cuts from the Fed.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
