Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets

Prediction markets are pricing in about a 70% chance that the federal government will shut down on Wednesday, reflecting growing skepticism that lawmakers will strike a last-minute deal to keep agencies funded.

Users on Kalshi and Polymarket increased their bets on a government closure after the Labor Department said it won’t release Friday’s key jobs report, watched closely on Wall Street, in case of a shutdown. Over the weekend, the odds were at around 50%.

The elevated odds underscore deepening dysfunction in Congress, where disputes over spending levels escalated. While Democrats want the funding bill to include extensions to Affordable Care Act insurance subsidies, Republican leaders are saying that debate should wait until after a shutdown is averted.

President Donald Trump is expected to meet with the top four congressional leaders Monday after abruptly canceling a meeting with Democratic leadership last week.

The Trump administration last week told federal agencies to begin preparing for mass firings if Congress does not agree to a deal to avert a shutdown. If the White House follows through on its threat, it would mark a break from precedent. In past shutdowns, federal employees have been furloughed but not permanently laid off.