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OLBG has analysed the general election odds and found Labour will win 454 seats in Thursday’s vote, commanding a 369-seat majority
The odds analysis shows the Conservatives will form the opposition with 85 seats, 280 fewer than they won in 2019
Lib Dems win 69 seats, 58 more than they won in 2019.
Reform win just one seat – Nigel Farage taking Clacton as the 1/7 favourite to win. However Ashfield, Boston and Skegness are among the tightest seats in the UK with Reform marginal outsiders to win: (Ashfield: Labour 1/1, Reform 21/20. Boston and Skegness: Conservatives 1/1, Reform 21/20).
OLBG’s analysis looked at the odds for every candidate in all 650 seats in the 2024 general election and the favourite was declared the winner.
The SNP sink to 16 seats from their total of 48 won in 2019.
The Green Party have their best ever result in a general election with three seats, adding Bristol Central and Waveney Valley to Brighton Pavilion.
Labour have 334 ‘safe seats’ as defined by a seat where odds give them greater than a 75% chance of winning.
The average odds of the favourite in a seat is 1/5 – 83%.
There are 24 seats where the Conservatives are favourite but have less than a 75% chance of winning, 23 for Liberal Democrats.
Top Tories at risk
Jeremy Hunt loses in Godalming and Ash, Liberal Democrats 1/5 to win
Grant Shapps loses in Welwyn Hatfield, Labour 1/10 to win
Penny Mordaunt loses Portsmouth North, Labour 2/5 to win
Johnny Mercer loses Plymouth Moor View, Labour 1/5 to win
Sir Ian Duncan Smith loses Chingford and Woodford Green, Labour 4/11 win
Sir Jacob Rees Mog loses Somerset North East and Hanham, Labour 1/5 win
Liz Truss loses Norfolk South West, Labour 4/6 win
Rishi Sunak holds Richmond and Northallerton, Conservatives 1/3 win
Suella Braverman holds Fareham and Waterlooville, Conservatives 2/5 win
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