Oil drops more than 5% as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial

Oil prices fell more than 5% Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that Washington and Tehran are “in negotiations right now” and indicated Iran is keen to reach a peace agreement, despite the Islamic Republic denying any direct talks with the U.S.

International benchmark Brent crude futures fell nearly 6% to $98.31 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were also down 5% at $87.65 per barrel.

Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he had pulled back from his earlier threat to launch strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure “based on the fact we’re negotiating.”

“They’re talking to us, and they’re talking sense,” Trump said when asked to elaborate on the shift.

Later Tuesday, The New York Times reported, citing two unnamed officials, that the U.S. had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war.

According to the report, it remains unclear how widely the proposal, delivered through Pakistan, has been circulated among Iranian officials. It is also uncertain whether Israel, which is carrying out attacks on Iran alongside the U.S., would back the plan.

The current disruption to oil supplies marks the largest shock in decades when measured as a share of global supply, Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven said in a call with the media, underscoring the unusually high uncertainty facing markets.

The bank noted that near-term price movements are being driven less by changes in the base case outlook and more by shifts in the perceived probability of worst-case scenarios. Crude is effectively trading on a geopolitical risk premium as investors hedge against prolonged disruptions and critically low inventories, Goldman said.

The bank’s base case assumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz to normalize in April over a four-week period.