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Piper Sandler said several positive catalysts are in sight for Biogen over the next several quarters. Analyst Christopher Raymond upgraded Biogen to overweight from neutral. He also raised his price target to $346 per share from $280 per share. The new target implies upside of 20.3% from Friday’s close. The firm named the foremost catalyst for Biogen as Alzheimer’s treatment Leqembi , which it co-developed with Japanese pharmaceutical company Eisai. Leqembi is awaiting full approval from the Food and Drug Administration by July 6. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced earlier in the year that it would provide broader coverage of Leqembi following the FDA approval. “Once full approval and subsequent full CMS reimbursement is gained (both rather likely in our view), uptake of the drug will indeed accelerate. Specifically, while share today is minimal (0.7% of patients), docs project this share to almost quadruple within 6 months,” Raymond wrote in a Monday note. “Moreover, peak share is projected at almost 24%. Pen to paper, these projections would infer an annual US run rate north of $500M within 6 months, and over $5.4B at peak. For perspective, US consensus is just $49M this year and $2.9B in 2027,” Raymond continued. To be sure, Raymond said that the pending full approval is also a primary obstacle to his ambitious growth projections. He noted that 75% of doctors indicated they would never prescribe Leqembi under the current accelerated approval — meanwhile, the number increases to over 80% when within a year of full approval. “Moreover, addressing a key investor concern – almost 80% of docs today report adequate access to infusion capacity, but that number drops just a little to 70% after increasing use upon full approval,” said Raymond. “Other issues such as the cumbersome existing diagnostic protocol and ARIA concerns are real, but also seem quite manageable according to these docs. Weighed against a very interesting dynamic where most docs see the Leqembi’s CLARITY AD result as clinically meaningful, but especially so for Alzheimer’s specialists, we think – in contrast to Aduhelm – docs believe in this drug’s clinical utility and will thus find a way to get it to patients,” Raymond added. Aduhelm is the controversial Alzheimer’s treatment developed by Biogen and Eisai, whose sales fell below Wall Street’s expectations as its efficacy was called into question. “For our part, we think Leqembi has set a high bar – especially with regard to safety,” said Raymond. “While management has already telegraphed a decent amount of cost savings, especially by dismantling the Aduhelm commercial effort, etc. we think even more expense leverage is in store.” Shares of Biogen were up 1.3% in the premarket Monday. Shares have gained 4% in 2023. They are also up 35% in the past 12 months. “Bottom line, with this Leqembi feedback and our expectation for a new era of management execution at Biogen, we now think the stock is worth a close look. Buyers right here.” —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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