Saudi Aramco posts revenue drop ahead of projected demand hike in second half

Saudi Aramco on Tuesday posted a drop in second-quarter revenues, citing lower crude oil and refined chemical products prices that were only partially offset by higher traded volumes.

The world’s largest oil company declared an adjusted net income of 92.04 billion Saudi riyal ($24.5 billion) over the three months to the end of June. The result compares with a forecast of adjusted net income of $23.7 billion, according to an analyst survey estimate supplied by the company.

Second-quarter revenues dropped to 378.83 billion Saudi riyals from 425.71 billion Saudi riyal in the same period of the previous year.

“Market fundamentals remain strong and we anticipate oil demand in the second half of 2025 to be more than two million barrels per day higher than the first half,” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said in a Tuesday statement accompanying the results.

Capital expenditure picked up slightly to 46.2 billion Saudi riyal in the June quarter, up from 45.5 billion Saudi riyal in the same period a year prior.

Crude prices have stayed depressed over the course of the year, barring a brief second-quarter flare-up sparked by Israel-Iran tensions. Futures have been under pressure from an uncertain outlook for demand, exacerbated since April by the rollout of Washington’s wide-spanning tariffs. The protectionist trade measures muddy the picture for growth in the world’s largest economy and the future of the U.S. dollar, which denominates most commodities — including crude oil.

Aramco’s income is set to see a boost from higher output, after Saudi Arabia – and seven other OPEC and non-OPEC partners — complete unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts through a last tranche in September. Saudi Arabia most recently produced 9.356 million barrels per day in June, according to independent analyst estimates compiled in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report.

Aramco has increasingly tapped debt markets, with two issuances totalling $9 billion in the second half of 2024 and a three-part bond sale of $5 billion this year. The company’s gearing ratio went up to 6.5% as of June 30, 2025, compared to 5.3% as at March 31, 2025.

Front of mind for investors is the dividend policy at Aramco, which in March slashed investor returns for 2025 to $85.4 billion — down sharply from the $124.2 billion of 2024 — after a first-quarter decline in net profits. Aramco declared a base dividend of $21.1 billion and a performance-linked dividend of $0.2 billion in the third quarter.

The company’s dividend yield stood at 5.5% as of Monday, still ahead of U.S. industry peer Exxon Mobil‘s 3.6% and Chevron‘s 4.5%, according to FactSet data.

Aramco’s payouts ripple sharply into the budget of Saudi Arabia, which has been juggling diversifying its economy away from oil reliance under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s signature Vision 2030 program. Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product expanded by 3.9% in the second quarter, boosted by non-oil activities.