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New York Community Bank ‘s ongoing struggles have increased investors’ anxiety around the regional bank sector. The value of NYCB shares have been cut by more than half since it reported quarterly losses and a dividend cut on Jan. 31. The bank was forced to set aside cash to cover potential losses on commercial real estate loans. According to Citi Research, short selling various regional banks is on the rise as traders become more worried about other names in the field. The increase is calculated through Citi’s “short crowding score,” a proprietary formula by the firm that estimates the amount of short-selling in a stock. Official short-selling data from the exchanges that would encompass the latest regional bank fallout has not yet been released. The short crowding on NYCB shares surged to 70% in the week ended Feb. 2, up from 45% the prior week. To be sure, “our bank analysts think the reaction is overdone on a fundamental basis,” Hong Li, the firm’s head of equity and quantitative trading, said in a Wednesday note. He explained that many of the stocks with high short crowding scores actually announced their earnings prior to NYCB’s report, indicating the activity is being driven by increased fears around the sector since the companies hadn’t boosted their credit loss provisions. Although Citi “remain[s] constructive long term on the regional banks, many investors continue to worry about the contagion impact and keep asking ‘Who Else?'” Li added. Take a look at the regional banks that have been shorted the most, and where analysts see them going from here. Remember, an investor creates a short position in a stock by borrowing shares and selling them on a hunch the stock will decline in value. If they are right, they buy the stock at a lower price and pocket the difference. S & T Bancorp ‘s short crowding score has jumped to 83% in the week ended Feb. 2, which marks a 37% increase from the prior week. Ratings agency S & P Global lowered its outlook on the bank from negative to stable in August 2023, citing the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. All five of the analysts covering S & T Bancorp have a hold rating, according to LSEG. The consensus price target suggests 12.2% upside from the stock’s current level. Shares have fallen more than 7% year to date. Simmons First National also saw its short crowding score nearly double to reach 63% last week. Shares of the bank, which has operations across the Midwest and the South, have dropped 7.5% in February to tally an 11% loss in 2024. Analysts are also bearish on the stock — five analysts have issued a hold rating, as well as one underperform rating. Shares could add around 17% from here, according to the average price target from analysts polled by LSEG. First Financial Corp . and CrossFirst Bankshares ‘ short crowding scores have risen 30% each to 69% and 71%, respectively. Three out of four analysts with CrossFirst in their coverage have issued either a strong buy or a buy rating, per LSEG data. While shares have dipped 3.1% year to date, analysts surveyed by LSEG estimate it could rally nearly 30%. Meanwhile, all of the analysts covering First Financial rate it a hold, according to LSEG. The stock is down nearly 13% for the year-to-date period, and is forecasted to have nearly 15% upside potential based on its average price target. First Financial reported its fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 30. CEO Norman Lowery said its “credit quality remains stable” as it takes a “disciplined approac to expense management. CFB YTD mountain CrossFirst Bankshares in 2024 —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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