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The fear in the stock market from President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement appears to have cooled off, but it’s hard for many investors to feel like their favorite individual stocks have safely avoided any trade war damage. The second week of trading after Trump’s initial rollout of the “reciprocal” tariffs ended with no announced new trade deals, even though some of the biggest import levies are now paused until at least July . The White House and Trump say there have been discussions with several countries, including Japan, but the details and timelines remain murky. “We don’t really have any outcome yet to these tariff negotiations. The administration claims that it’s very close to signing new trade deals with something like 15 countries, but we don’t have any of those yet,” said Scott Welch, chief investment officer of Certuity. How long the negotiations take is just one thing that is a variable for the market. Another is how the actual text of the deals — along with the details of the sector specific tariffs that are still in the pipeline — will affect individual companies, potentially including some of the biggest names in the market. That risk was shown last week when Nvidia announced it was taking a $5.5 billion charge related to export restrictions on its H20 processors. The stock dropped 6.9% on Wednesday and then another 2.9% on Thursday ahead of the long weekend. “Clearly the Trump rug remains in full effect,” Bernstein semiconductor analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in an April 16 note to clients. NVDA 5D mountain Nvidia dropped sharply on Wednesday and Thursday. The chip export rules may not explicitly be part of the tariff discussions, but Trump has indicated that the negotiations can include things like financing a natural gas project in Alaska or the sale of TikTok , making it difficult to pin down exactly what stock could make a big swing on the next trade headline. And these negotiation risks comes as global investors appear to be moving away from U.S. assets in general, putting downside pressure on stocks. “When you do the stop-start thing, it definitely helps keep U.S. retail in the game, but it’s not going to help this flow of global investors selling Mag 7,” Lawrence McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report, said about the tariff negotiations. Another way that the tariff negotiations could start to make an impact on the market is through earnings season, as corporate executives try to give investors and analysts a better sense of how the global trade situation will affect their companies. Some may choose to copy the United Airlines idea of giving two different forecasts for 2025, while others may abstain from making public projections altogether. Some of the executive commentary could highlight ways a company is exposed that Wall Street hasn’t fully considered. And, as Trivariate Research CEO Adam Parker wrote in a note to clients Thursday, traders appear to be quick to dump a stock when the earnings picture gets worse. “We tracked the market penalty for negative EPS revisions over time, and the recent penalty for revisions of greater than 5% has been harsh, with the average penalty the last two months in the 4th percentile relative to the last 25 years. This means only 1 in 25 months are downward revisions punished as much as they have been over the recent period,” Parker wrote. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
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