Tech research firm once again predicts BYD will overtake Tesla in global BEV market share (for real this time)

Another fiscal year and another bold prediction that Tesla’s long-running reign as the global market share leader will end. As previously predicted, BYD is once again expected to usurp Tesla in total BEV sales in 2025, and it may actually happen this time.

The possibility of Build Your Dreams (BYD) overtaking Tesla in global BEV market share has teetered on the fringe of fruition for years now as the Chinese auto conglomerate has become one of the most innovative and quickly expanding companies in its respective segment.

BYD has expanded its market reach throughout Asia and into new markets with sales and localized production around Europe, South America, and even Mexico (maybe).

Such rapid expansion has resulted in record sales for BYD so far. In 2024, it marked a record year, achieving over $100 billion in sales, which has continued into 2025 thus far. Earlier this week, we reported that through the first three months of 2025, BYD had sold over one million New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), up 60% from the 626,263 sold in Q1 2024.

Advertisement – scroll for more content

As such, Tech research firm Counterpoint has predicted BYD will (finally) overtake Tesla in global BEV market share in 2025. Forgive us if you’ve heard this one before.

In late 2023, Counterpoint shared that by the end of Q3 2023, BYD had caught up with Tesla, holding 17% of all global BEV sales and 68% YoY growth. Furthermore, the Chinese automaker’s sales sheet was growing at a more rapid rate than Tesla’s, predicting it would overtake the BEV crown sometime in 2024, if not by the end of 2023. That didn’t happen. Tesla ended up having a strong Q4 2023 but BYD continued to narrow its gap.

Counterpoint reiterated its prediction in the summer of 2024, which almost came true. By the end of the 2024 fiscal year, BYD had sold 1.76 million BEVs but was just edged out by Tesla, which sold 1.78 million.

Three months into 2025, Counterpoint likes what it sees in BYD and is once again predicting the automaker will finally overtake Tesla in BEV market share this year.

BYD predicted to own a 15.7% BEV market share over Tesla

Counterpoint shared its latest Global Passenger EV Forecast this week. It anticipates that BYD will end 2025 with a 15.7% piece of the BEV market share pie, compared to 15.3% for Tesla. The tech research firm cited BYD’s proprietary technology, such as its new Super E-Platform, 1,000 kW chargers, and Blade Batteries, as a leap in BEV performance and ease of use for customers, leading to even more sales. Counterpoint research analyst, Abhik Mukherjee, elaborated:

The system can deliver 400 km of range in just 5 minutes, setting a new industry benchmark, far outpacing Tesla’s Supercharger, which adds about 275 km in 10 minutes. This technological leap is expected to significantly ease consumer concerns around charging time and boost EV adoption by reducing charging anxiety.

Conversely, Counterpoint cited Tesla’s recent struggles as evidence that it will cede its market share crown in 2025. We’ve seen a less-than-rosy outlook on Cybertruck sales. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has become a polarizing figure in the political sector, turning many customers off to the brand in regions like Europe and the US.

Counterpoint also noted rising geopolitical and trade tensions between the US and China and increased tariffs on Chinese EV components brought on by Musk’s unusual new alliance with President Trump, further rattling Tesla’s supply chain. Those hiccups, combined with delayed product launches and intensifying competition in BEV technologies, appear to be enough to dethrone the long-championed American automaker. Associate Director Liz Lee spoke about Musk essentially shooting himself in the foot by bringing a sleeping bag into the oval office:

CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company’s sales were hurt in Q1 2025. This is a big opportunity for BYD and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally.

Thanks to BYD’s strategy (similar to Tesla’s) to achieve vertical integration, the Chinese automaker could overtake Tesla’s market share this year and not forfeit its lead for quite some time. This team around, it feels less like a question of “if,” and more of a matter of “when.” We should have a better idea when Q2 2025 reports from both companies hit the public.