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Primo Brands , owner of viral bottled-water brand Saratoga Spring, is likely to gain more ground as it continues to ramp up its retail push, according to Jefferies. The investment firm upgraded the stock to buy from hold. It also raised its price target to $25 from $24, suggesting roughly 40% upside. “Primo Brands offers a rare combination of value, growth, and visibility,” analyst Kaumil Gajrawala said Friday in a note to clients. “Having entered ’26 on a firmer footing, the story is shifting from stabilization to optimization, bringing the retail opportunity to the fore.” Last month, Primo issued forward adjusted EBTDA guidance in the range of $1.485 billion to $1.515 billion for fiscal year 2026. That figure seems “not just achievable but conservative” as “many growth levers are at play,” Gajrawala wrote. In early 2025, Primo promoted Saratoga Spring through partnerships with influencers across social media platforms. The marketing effort was a huge success, with one TikToker’s elaborate morning routine featuring Saratoga’s iconic blue bottle going viral. Primo has also leaned into high-profile marketing opportunities at the Golden Globes, where Saratoga Spring appeared on the red carpet. And another one of its portfolio brands, Mountain Valley, will be visible at the Academy of Country Music Awards this spring, Primo executives said last month on a call with investors on the firm’s fourth-quarter results. However, “Primo has yet to scratch the surface on [revenue growth management],” Jefferies wrote. “When executed well, a meaningful growth and margin lever can be unlocked,” Gajrawala added. “Levers include pricing closer to consumption, better feature & display execution, pack architecture, and greater exposure to cold. Premium capacity adds incremental growth.” He expects Primo’s retail sales to grow roughly 2.5% in the coming years, with the company’s top line set to accelerate through 2026. “At 10x 2028 earnings, shares do not reflect the earnings power,” they wrote. Primo has gained 9% this year, outperforming the overall market. The stock’s strong performance in 2026 shows the water seller’s aggressive marketing campaigns are bearing fruit. However, shares are still down 48% over the past 12 months. Correction: A previous version misspelled Saratoga Spring.
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