The US solar market is projected to triple in size by 2028

Due in part to strong Q1 2023 numbers and a surge in demand, the US solar market is now expected to triple in size over the next five years, according to a new report.

According to the “US Solar Market Insight Q2 2023 report,” released today by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie, the solar market is now expected to achieve a total installed solar capacity of 378 gigawatts (GW) by 2028.   

The US solar industry installed 6.1 GW of solar capacity and had its best first quarter in history in Q1 2023, due to the easing of supply chain challenges and delayed solar projects moving forward.  

The Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act has also spurred a surge of new manufacturing announcements, with US module capacity expected to rise from fewer than 9 GW today to more than 60 GW by 2026. At least 16 GW of solar module factories are under construction as of the end of Q1 2023. 

Despite customer hesitancy, the residential segment installed 1.6 GW of solar capacity in Q1 2023, a 30% increase from Q1 2022. The residential market segment is on track to add 36 GW of solar over the next five years, growing at an average annual rate of 6%.  

The commercial market also had a record first quarter, with 391 megawatts (MW) installed, putting it on track for 12% growth in 2023.

Florida was the top solar state in Q1 2023, due to 1.46 GW of utility-scale solar installations. Florida installed more than 70% more solar capacity in Q1 than California, the No. 2 state.

The utility-scale market saw a strong first quarter and a record 3.8 GW of installed solar capacity. More module importers were able to satisfy documentation requirements under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which enabled more solar equipment to make it to project sites.

However, the community solar segment installed 212 MW, a 13% decrease from Q1 2022, due in large part to ongoing interconnection challenges.

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Photo: “Solar Installation at Washington County Landfill (Closed)” by MN Pollution Control Agency is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.