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This stock reporting earnings soon can’t seem to shake the tariff overhang. How to hedge into the results

Chaim Potok by Chaim Potok
October 9, 2025
in Investing
This stock reporting earnings soon can’t seem to shake the tariff overhang. How to hedge into the results
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Hasbro Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) , the venerable toy and entertainment giant behind iconic brands like Transformers, Monopoly, and My Little Pony, will report earnings on Oct. 23. As investors gear up, the spotlight is on how the company can navigate macro headwinds, cost pressures, and evolving consumer preferences in the toy, gaming, and licensing spaces. In its last reported results (for the second quarter of 2025), Hasbro delivered adjusted EPS of $1.30, beating consensus expectations (~$0.78) and posting net revenue of $980.8 million (a ~1.5 % year-over-year decline). The performance was helped by strength in its digital/gaming and Wizards of the Coast businesses, particularly from Magic: The Gathering , whose revenue rose ~23%. While those results gave momentum, Hasbro also took a heavy non-cash charge tied to its consumer products unit (a ~$1B tariff-related impairment), which produced a net loss in GAAP terms. That kind of accounting volatility remains a risk as the company transitions. Tariff pressures remain a thorn in Hasbro’s side. The company sources nearly half of its toy/game products from China, making it vulnerable to trade policy shifts. To offset these pressures, Hasbro has been executing cost-cutting measures, including cutting ~3% of its workforce (~150 jobs) in mid-2025. It is also diversifying manufacturing and logistics footprints to reduce exposure. The bigger challenge is that toy sales used to be propelled by conventional mass media. Saturday morning cartoons or perhaps movies were the toys, the marketing, and the advertising engine. Many franchises lasted for years. The new digital landscape is saturated and fragmented, viral and volatile. It’s therefore interesting that implied volatility — the price of options — suggests investors are sanguine ahead of the coming release. The company has done a decent job of navigating a changing landscape, and actually raised guidance when they reported in July, but this comes on the heels of 3 consecutive years of material revenue declines. Whether they navigate the chaos of decentralized digital consumption remains to be seen. Although the stock is up nearly 20% year-to-date, it has underperformed the S & P significantly since hitting its highs for the year in August. Traders who believe this relative weakness is unlikely to reverse when they report in just under two weeks may want to consider taking some protective measures if they own the shares. One way to do this would be to use a put spread, such as the November 75/65 as follows, a trade that might also serve a bearish speculator, risking less than 4% of the current stock price to make a bearish bet. The probability of profit when one buys options in this manner is generally less than 50/50 (in fact, the implied probability that this trade is profitable is ~40%), but the max payoff of a spread like this is greater than the premium risked to buy it, creating some asymmetry in the risk/reward as well. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.

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