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Grant Thornton UK’s latest Business Outlook Tracker, a rolling survey of over 600 UK mid-market decision makers (April 2025) found that whilst businesses are reviewing their strategies around US and international investment, they expect their decisions to be made quickly and feel they have a clear view of the options available.
Undertaken before the announcement of the UK-US trade deal, the Business Outlook Tracker optimism indicators have declined since they reached record highs at the beginning of the year, they remain above average levels seen across the last four years.
80% of businesses were optimistic about the UK’s economic prospects over the next six months (-3pp since February) and 59% expect their organisation’s profits to increase in next six months (-8pp decrease since February).
Dan Dickinson, tax partner at Grant Thornton UK, said, “Mid-market businesses are the real powerhouse of the UK economy.
“Their plans, actions and opinions are a clear bellwether of our economic health. This survey was undertaken in light of the Government’s Spring Statement and six months on from the Autumn Budget, both of which contained significant fiscal announcements which created cost increases for businesses in many areas. That mid-market leaders remain this positive is notable.
“Having faced the considerable challenges of the last five years, dominated by the pandemic and its after-effects, many businesses are now hard-wired to withstand sudden shocks and have built resilience into their business model.”
When questioned about their focus on the US market, 75% of respondents said that the US is a core growth market. Though many (61%) respondents agreed that tariffs will have a negative impact on the growth of their business, mid-market leaders are exploring options and remaining cautiously optimistic about cross-Atlantic trade. 70% still believe the Trump administration is good for British business, though this has dropped -13pp since February this year.
Despite this positive sentiment, of those businesses currently trading with the US (68% of total respondents) nearly half (45%) expect to stop trading with the US completely, and 25% expect to scale down trading with the US. Only a small number (9%) do not expect any impact on their trade with the US.
Dickinson added,“According to our research, businesses are moving quickly to consider all options on the table, from exploring alternative markets, to setting up US operations to moving elements of the supply chain back to the UK.
“Whilst the survey was undertaken before the announcement of the US-UK trade deal, we have seen limited details so far, and bearing in mind that negotiations in some areas are still in train, I suspect that the mid-market’s planning will have changed little – there is still a lot to be decided, and considering all options remains the right business course of action.
“Things are changing at pace, this month so far, we have seen two trade deals and interest rate cut delivering some positive economic progress and welcome reassurance for businesses. Trade deals serve to offer clarity for businesses, aiding planning and investment. With a further deal with the EU expected before the end of the month, this clarity along with the endorsement of global leaders reinforces the UK’s position as a reliable trading partner.
“Crucially, in the current unpredictable world, it is important not to take knee-jerk decisions when considering market focus or location of operations. These are longer-term decisions and assuming an outcome can result in locking a business into a costly change programme and higher cost environment.
“However, inertia can also negatively impact a business. Detailed sensitivity and options analysis, with flexible contingencies, is how we are seeing the better-prepared businesses responding in its current period of 3-6 months before we know more of where US policy, and key international trade deals, will end up.”
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