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The continued slide for regional bank stocks after the failure of First Republic last week has created some buying opportunities in the sector, according to Wall Street analysts. Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia said in a note to clients on Tuesday that first-quarter earnings reports showed that mid-sized banks are in better shape than their stock market performance would suggest. “We believe this recent stock reaction is overdone as there is currently no evidence of accelerating deposit outflows. We see accelerating deposit costs, not accelerating deposit outflows, as the most significant headwind for the midcap banks over the next several quarters,” Gosalia wrote. Earnings pressure could make it difficult for the stocks to rebound in the coming months, but there are some companies who stand out above their peers, including Huntington Bancshares and Webster Financial , according to Gosalia. “Accelerating deposit competition is weighing on the [net interest income] outlook for HBAN, but we believe that their skew toward stickier consumer/small business deposits should allow the bank to manage deposit pricing pressure more effectively than peers,” Gosalia wrote about Huntington. For Webster, “diversified funding sources” is an area of strength, Gosalia said. Huntington and Webster also rise to the top of the heap for RBC Capital Markets analyst Jon Arfstrom. “We continue to believe names such as HBAN, WBS, and [ Wintrust Financial ] are among the best positioned in the current environment, though we also recognize that our entire coverage universe has valuations that are low relative to historical levels,” Arfstrom said in a note to clients on Tuesday. Both Huntington and Webster are down about 30% for the year, which is better than the SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). HBAN YTD mountain Huntington’s stock is down about 30% on the year. For investors who want to stick to the larger regionals, Piper Sandler analyst R. Scott Siefers made the case for Fifth Third Bank in a note to clients on Tuesday. “This strikes us as a very well-managed, ‘down the middle’ name in a highly uncertain environment, and we like the attractive valuation. The deposit base seems to be holding in well in the aggregate, management has been conservative with regard to credit and interest rate risk, the company is diligent with its costs, and it has nice fee diversification,” Siefers said. And Gosalia’s top pick in regional banks was M & T Bank , whose shares have fallen 20% this year, a relatively mild drop in the group. “While the bank is not immune to industry-wide pressure on funding costs over the coming quarters, this higher excess liquidity means they have more flexibility to: 1) Avoid paying up as aggressively as peers to retain deposits as rates rise; and 2) Grow their securities portfolio to protect NIM as rates fall,” the Morgan Stanley wrote said. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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