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Pharmaceutical stocks largely shrugged off the change in Covid vaccine authorization policy, though analysts see rising risk in the space. The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday set new limits for who is approved to get the latest round of Covid vaccines in the U.S. Despite this change, investors in vaccine makers haven’t taken this as a major sell-the-news event like some market participants might have expected on the surface. Shares of Moderna , Pfizer and Novavax pulled back in Thursday’s session, but rose on Wednesday despite the news coming midday. BioNTech has has fallen on both days, but the daily moves were not considered outsized based on the stock’s recent history. “Investors don’t actually think anything is new,” said Daina Graybosch, senior analyst at Leerink Partners. “The market thinks they already know this.” PFE MRNA 5D mountain Pfizer and Moderna, 5-day Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the shots would be available for any interested patient after consulting with their doctors. But the change raised questions about the ease of accessibility and if insurers will tighten coverage for healthy individuals. Yet for traders, this policy feels similar to the guidance already put out by the FDA in May, according to William Blair analyst Myles Minter. ‘A lot more risk’ Vaccine makers have already been grappling with decreased interest in Covid-related products as the pandemic receded from society. On top of that, investors have considered concerns about the future of vaccines since Kennedy Jr., a noted skeptic, took the role leading HHS. Still, Leerink’s Graybosch said there’s more risk in the space overall. She’s heard the outlook under President Donald Trump’s administration described as “one step forward, two steps back,” meaning there’s two headwinds on vaccine policy for every one positive development. Graybosch said there’s increasing potential that Covid vaccines are either pulled from the U.S. market by regulators, or the companies remove them to avoid policy headaches. Additionally, she said any changes to rules for insurers around covering the vaccines can also significantly impact revenue. “There is a lot more risk, but it’s the same nature of risk that was there in” recent months, Graybosch said. Still, “if you stood today, then you stood in February, I’d be like, ‘Whoa, it’s way worse than I anticipated.'” Within the group, Wall Street likes some stocks more than others. The typical analyst polled by LSEG has a hold on Pfizer and Moderna, for example, but buys on BioNTech and Novavax. All four stocks are down year to date given the growing risks tied to the Covid vaccine. However, the average analyst’s price target suggests a rebound ahead for all four.
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