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Only four in ten (40%) undecided voters say they think the most likely outcome of the election will be a Labour majority government, the same proportion as those who say they don’t know (41%), according to new research from Savanta.
Savanta’s findings, taken in the final weeks of the campaign (21-23 June) suggest that Conservative warnings of a ‘supermajority’ for Labour are not reaching genuinely undecided voters.
Six in ten (62%) of public think there is going to be a Labour majority government after next election, but this is mainly driven by Labour voters, with 83% saying they think the outcome will be a Labour majority. Less than half (47%) expect Labour will have a ‘large’ majority, while one in seven (15%) think a hung parliament is most likely outcome, with only 10% saying a Conservative majority is most likely.
Just under half (45%) of those saying they are going to vote Conservative admit a Labour majority is most likely outcome.
When the public is asked which party is most likely to form the official opposition, the Labour Party (23%) comes second only to the Conservatives (32%), with Reform UK only chosen by one in eight (13%) of voters.
Emma Levin, Associate Director at Savanta said, “Our research counters a widely held view in SW1 that the election has already played out in the minds of voters – many, in particular those who are genuinely undecided, do not seen this as a done deal.”
“Clearly there is a sense that Labour are in a strong position. But with one in four voters thinking Labour are most likely to be the next official opposition, there is little evidence to suggest that the ‘supermajority’ messaging is cutting through where it needs to, and may allay fears in Labour of potential apathy among their supporters.”
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